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Youth Policy Review

Geopolitical Ramifications of the Beirut Explosion

A debt crisis, ailing banking sector, and falling currency coupled with runaway inflation, burgeoning poverty, and unemployment with a refugee problem. Add to this, the strain of dealing with a pandemic and an incompetent and corrupt political class.

This is what Lebanon, a country in West Asia, looked like when a massive explosion rocked its capital city Beirut on 4th of August 2020, killing 200, injuring 6,000 and rendering a quarter of a million people homeless.


Founded in the wake of the fall of the Ottoman Empire post World War One, the state of Lebanon was established and placed under the French mandate in 1920. It remained a French colony till it attained independence in 1943. Since then, the country has been marked by periods of political turmoil interspersed with prosperity built on its position as a regional center for finance and trade. From 1975-1980, it witnessed a bloody civil war among the different religious militias. An estimated 120,000 people were killed in this war. Simultaneously, Syria and Israel invaded and attacked the country in 1976 and 1982, respectively, establishing a military presence and influencing the domestic as well as foreign policies.


The civil war resolved in 1990 after a power-sharing agreement, known as the Taif agreement. This was a huge achievement for this is a region where civil wars and conflicts were not necessarily resolved. The agreement disarmed all sectarian militias except for the Shia Muslim’s Hezbollah that was fighting a war against Israel at the southern border. Lebanon’s government was designed to provide political representation to all the religious groups, with its three largest

being Christian Maronites, Sunni Muslims, and Shiite Muslims.


The number of seats in parliament is split between Christians and Muslims and proportionally divided among the different denominations within each religion. Government posts and public-sector positions are also divided among the majority sects with the President always being a Maronite Christian, the Prime Minister a Sunni and the Speaker of Parliament at Shia. At present, Muslims account for 61.1% of the population (30.6% Sunni, 30.5% Shia) with 33.7% Christians.


This arrangement transformed the militias into political parties and the erstwhile warlords into suit-adorning politicians: corrupt, incompetent to govern, and influenced by their vested interests and foreign backing. This has stymied the political institutions and made the nation dependent on a handful of sectarian leaders who usually inherited rule from their fathers. Lebanon is deeply embedded in the West Asian region, being heavily influenced by the geopolitics of the region. An estimated 350,000 Lebanese ex-pats live and work in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait. Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Syria have all vied for influence and control in this country through their proxies and support for local politicians.


Shortly after the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran, Hezbollah – a Shiite political party and militia was created and funded by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) under General Qassem Soleiman in Lebanon. Billed as a Shiite resistance movement, it enshrined its ideology in a 1985 manifesto that vowed to expel Western powers from Lebanon, called for the destruction of the Israeli state, and pledged allegiance to Iran’s supreme leader. It also advocated for an Iran-inspired Islamist regime but emphasized that the Lebanese people must have the freedom of self-determination.


After the civil war ended, Hezbollah, unlike other militias, was not disarmed. It is called “a state within a state” owing to a vast network of social services including health-care facilities, schools, and youth programs. This in turn has been instrumental in garnering support for Hezbollah from Shiite and non-Shiite Lebanese alike. It has also been touted as the “world’s most heavily armed non-state actor” and is designated as a terrorist organization by several nations.

Tehran has used Hezbollah as a proxy to help support its cause in the region by providing military support to Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, fighting the Islamic State in Iraq and keeping Israel’s ambitions in check. They have also trained and armed the Houthi rebels of Yemen, much to the anger of Saudi Arabia – Iran’s main regional rival.




Dissent from within:


Hezbollah and its Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah have become major power centers in Lebanon. Through their allies, they effectively control the Parliament, the Cabinet, and several other government institutions. However, the explosion in Beirut, much like Chernobyl has laid bare the criminal negligence and apathy of Hezbollah and other political parties towards the Lebanese people. Protestors in Beirut have started to question the legitimacy of Hezbollah and have asked for it to be dismantled.


Despite its money and muscle power and foreign support, Hezbollah needs the support of Lebanese to continue to function effectively in the region. It cannot oppressively govern the country while engaging with Israel, Saudi Arabia, or the United States. At the same time, it would also not give a lot of concessions to the protesters in terms of removing the existing power elite and conducting a free-and-fair election that might cause harm to its prestige.

Hezbollah cannot afford to lose any ground in a situation where its enemies, the UAE

and Israel, have agreed to normalize ties effectively to increase cooperation in areas of

defense, nuclear capabilities and to control Iran’s aspirations in the region.

The explosion at the Beirut port has had other consequences as well. Lebanon is host to over 1.5 million refugees from Palestine and Syria. And, the Port of Beirut functioned as a major logistical hub for aid bound to Syria. With the port now destroyed, humanitarian officials are scrambling to find ways to keep the supply chain open.

The obstinacy of the West and the IMF towards helping the Lebanese state without adequate political reform, put together with China’s recent overtures towards Iran can nudge Lebanon and Hezbollah to pursue stronger ties with China in order to gain economic assistance.


The explosion has laid bare the fault lines of the Lebenese state and the Hezbollah for all the world to see- a system ridden with systemic neglect and lack of accountability. Lebanon stands at an important juncture of its history and the choices it makes now will decide the fate of the country for generations to come.


References-


Beirut Explosion Imperils Lebanon’s Refugee Population—and Aid Routes to Syria,

ForeignPolicy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/11/lebanon-syria-refugee-population-beirut-explosion/


China Wants to Be Lebanon’s Savior, Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/07/09/china-wants-to-be-lebanons-savior/

Hezbollah and the people will have to negotiate a new Lebanon, Al

Jazeera, https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/post-blast-protests-usher-political-age-

lebanon-200810132037834.html


Lebanon: a nation brought to its knees, Financial Times, https://www.ft.com/content/0e8aff25-629c-4737-a1dc-8ed4ee32447e


Lebanon as We Know It Is Dying, Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/07/30/lebanon-as-we-know-it-is-dying/


Lebanon Is Paying the Cost of Its Dysfunctional Politics, Chatham House, https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/lebanon-paying-cost-its-

dysfunctional-politics


The Beirut Blast is Lebanon's Chernobyl, Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/05/beirut-explosion-blast-lebanon-ammonium-

nitrate-chernobyl-corruption/


What is Hezbollah? Council on Foreign Relations, https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-

hezbollah


By-

Rishabh Ahuja

(Ris.ahuja@ducic.ac.in)


An undergraduate student of Cluster Innovation Centre, University of Delhi, he is interested in International Relations, Public Policy and Philosophy.


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